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[sacredmarket]

Hi HC San

0.445 resistance broken and closed today at 0.450, how do see this move? From my charts i see next resistance as 0.535, am i correct?

SM

Ausgroup (2009-04-30 Closing Price $0.40)

Price already broken the neckline of a Adam and Eve formation on good volume.  Volume distribution chart shows present of big buyers.  Immediate resistance at 0.445, while support at 0.28.

[HC]

Ausgroup (2009-05-04 Closing Price $0.45)

This run up is faster then I expected, hitting 0.45 immediately after my technical comment on 2009-04-30. Though there is no sign of weakness and, as SM indicated, next resistance at 0.535, price has already run up >50% from 0.28 without much correction. Today's closing at resistance level also indicate market is "parking" the price at this critical area when market closed, the bulls are not taking on additional risk to push further but adapt a wait and see attitude.

To sum up, though the bias is still bullish, it is good for those who bought earlier at cheaper price to ride on, but late comer would like to consider twice the risk involved.

[sacredmarket]

Thank you HC San

Today it hit a high of 0.500 retrace, perhaps due to some weakness in the index. I would like to check with you, from a technical point of view, how do technicians identify distribution. Thank you

SM

Ausgroup (2009-05-04 Closing Price $0.45)

This run up is faster then I expected, hitting 0.45 immediately after my technical comment on 2009-04-30. Though there is no sign of weakness and, as SM indicated, next resistance at 0.535, price has already run up >50% from 0.28 without much correction. Today's closing at resistance level also indicate market is "parking" the price at this critical area when market closed, the bulls are not taking on additional risk to push further but adapt a wait and see attitude.

To sum up, though the bias is still bullish, it is good for those who bought earlier at cheaper price to ride on, but late comer would like to consider twice the risk involved.

[HC]

There are a few telltale signs.  Here are a few examples on the technical tools can be used, all are already in this forum :

1. Volume distribution chart

See detailed discussion at:
http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php/topic,259.msg556.html#msg556.  The example on Ezra ( http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php/topic,259.msg574.html#msg574) is about distribution.


2. Equivolume chart.

See example at: http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php/topic,470.msg1699.html#msg1699
The idea is be alert when there is huge volume but little price movement after rally.  (The flat long red box from the above example is one of them)


Of course we cannot use these in isolation, but have to look at the price chart/indicators also.  More important is to have most of the tools telling the same "story" and we can have more confidence.

Here is today's VD chart for Ausgroup, I am not going to comment on this, you should be able to get the answer yourself.

(Please read my comment yesterday, which I think still hold today; especially the last paragraph about down side risk that is even greater after today's rally.  This is not about technical analysis, it is about trading.  Technical picture may be bullish, but we have to ask does it worth the risk. In trading we have to guesstimate the risk and reward, and act to preserve our capital and risk only what we can affort.  Don't bite off something that you cannot chew.)

[sacredmarket]

Close right at 0.535 with increased and record volume. This counter is moving up strong and fast, there is SI member which gave it a 0.800 target.

Hi HC San

0.445 resistance broken and closed today at 0.450, how do see this move? From my charts i see next resistance as 0.535, am i correct?

SM

Ausgroup (2009-04-30 Closing Price $0.40)

Price already broken the neckline of a Adam and Eve formation on good volume.  Volume distribution chart shows present of big buyers.  Immediate resistance at 0.445, while support at 0.28.