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HC

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Naked Chart Trading
« on: November 19, 2008, 08:20:20 PM »

Naked Chart Trading

A kind soul introduced me to a thread called "Technical Analysis Fallacy" (TAF) in foraxfactory.com.  I find that this thread is very helpful to me and I share here my learning journey.   I also wish to express my gratitude to fti, the thread starter there as I have learnt much from him.

First of all, the original TAF thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639, and its continuation at

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=104773 (you may need to registered to in order to view the content on this one)

Here are a few threads started by his followers to share experience and chart on this trading method:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?
t=204471

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=237739


The original thread is VERY long, but it is worth your time reading it (at least the first 200 pages as it contain most of the teaching, those after page 200 or so are more of live trading commentary).  I have personally gone through TAF thread 2 times myself: 1st time I just concentrate on fti's postings to get what it is about, and the 2nd time combing through all postings.  I am doing the 3rd time on and off to refreshing my memory and see if I have missed anything.

This thread here is not to compete with forexfactory but to aid our members to get a quicker insight to what fti's is teaching about.

[
2009-08-07 HC Edit: fti has returned and the original thread continues.
2009-11-05 HC Edit: fti followers has started a thread to share experience, link added.
2011-02-10 HC Edit: this method may not suit everyone.  I hit a wall too after 2 years.  See
http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php?topic=547.msg5098#msg5098
2011-06-04 HC Edit: add donsky's trading thread.
]
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2008, 08:21:38 PM »

That said, many would like to know the result first: how profitable is that method?

Well, it depends on the skill level of the traders.  Many fti's students (according to what they posted) can clocked around 1% (of account balance) a day.  Quite a few clocked 5% sometimes, and there are some who doubled their account within a few months. There is even one that double his account within a day (see http://www.chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php?topic=547.msg2621#msg2621).   I think 0.5-1% a day is quite reasonably achievable.

Next question: What is the risk?

Blow your account, if you are not careful.   Some give back a month or a week's of trading profit for just 1 mistake.

Beside monetary issues, there are other health and living issue to consider too (though I must say that these are not unique to trading this method). Do take a look of this posting (http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php?topic=547.msg5770#msg5770) at late part of this thread. 

[
2012-01-31 HC Edit: fti's warning after one of his student hit a wall after 3 years of trading, see: http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php?topic=547.msg5770#msg5770
]

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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2008, 08:23:15 PM »

Trading Method

1. The main trading strategy is to ride a trend, by scaling in positions of varied lot size, and scaled out when approaching resistance or momentum is lost.

2. I find this the most challenging: pace the market movement and get a feel.  No indicator, pure price chart (thus naked chart).  Look at Day chart and hourly chart to gauge the trend  and overall picture, trade the 5 minutes chart.  There is no magic indicators, the most are just 2 MA (12 & 48 SMA in M5 chart) for initial directional guilds, but as trade progress, one has to react to price movement and act accordingly.

3. Entries are based on price action and "feel", so are exits.

4. Entry lot size are scaled in and exit are scaled out as momentum is lost.  Retain the first entry if you wish.  Entry size is discretionary, depending on trader's trading capital, risk appetite, chart pattern, price action.

5. Entry levels are discretionary too,  depending on trader's trading capital, risk appetite, chart pattern, price action.

6. No placing of stops loss orders, when price move against entry, consider rescue (average down essentially.  Yeah, I heard you, average down is taboo in trading, but just bear with me for a while, I will come to that later.)
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2008, 08:24:00 PM »

OK, here is one chart that shows what fti did some time back, posted in real time in TAF thread:

The minus sign are the short entries, the numbers are the relative lot size.  As you can see, once fti catch a trend, he pressed on aggressively.  When momentum is lost, those added positions are scaled out.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2008, 08:24:40 PM »

This is the continuation from the above chart.  After the first round of attack, a scout was left behind (far away from price) and when the trend continues, initiate another round of attack.  But this time somehow fti don't like the price action, so the attack is not as fierce and he exited all at the bottom of chart.

(Has anyone count how many pips he clocked in this 2-3 hours period? )
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