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Author Topic: Naked Chart Trading  (Read 25654 times)

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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2009, 11:18:22 AM »

Here is a session recap I did on 02 Jan 09 that shows how I did rescue (yes, I am putting myself on dartboard here).

Yesterday in London session, I saw a break down from congestion zone/triangle formation of EURUSD in H4 chart, and I think a continuation of price fall will follow.  In M5 chart, I look for an entry on break of support.

S 0.5 x 1.3841 - scout - black candle expands and support breaks, size halved as I am chasing
S 3 x 1.3908 - rescue 1  - price bounced off the resisting trend line, dark cloud cover
S 10 x 1.3943 - rescue 2 - price retrace after hitting previous high, bearish engulfing, support breaks
L 10 x 1.3941 - exit rescue 2 - price did not move as expected
S 10 x 1.3942 - rescue 3 - price break congestion zone support
L 13.5 x 1.3931 - exit all at BE.

Session profit: 16 pips
Open drawdown: 220+- pips max.

Session Review:
1. Poor timing of scout and rescue 1 entry.  Luckily the half size scout entry make rescue easier.
2. Rescue 2's exit is timely
3. Rescue 3 implementation is good.
4. The "exit all" was done by calculating my average price and then adjust the price to a nearby logical chart point (high of white candle before rescue 1) and keying in a take profit orders for all positions.  I do not wish to hold on further because I have no more time to watch.  If I keep watching, I may initiate a scout short on break of  support at 1.3924, but that is another session.

Note:
1. 16 pips profit is nothing to shout about, but the point here is this losing trade has got out profitable.
2. I kept an eye on hourly chart all the time to make sure that the down trend still intact.
3. All entries were made with reference to the price action.
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #26 on: January 07, 2009, 10:37:44 AM »

Hc, thanks for sharing your invaluable experience in the “fti’s method”.

I am still demo trading at the moment and one of the issues that I’m grappling with is whether to extricate the rescue unit even though that position has taken some losses.  My limited experience in the past few days have shown that these positions, if left in the battlefield for too long, would quickly snowball to my cut-loss threshold whereby I had to bite the bullet and exit the trade.

As far as the dance is concerned, I discovered that I am very similar to one of FF’s forumer, Lusan.  His journal is posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=72993

Like him, I have a very narrow window trading opportunity, especially if some of the news announcements come as late as 11pm sg time.  Most of the time, I would only dance one leg and I would finish the trade within 1.5 hours at most 2.  Any trade that lasted longer than that was usually a rescue operation and would mean that I woke up the next morning looking like a panda.

Given such a narrow window, the dance steps were necessarily quick and short.  Positions were entered and exited within a few bars, sometimes within the bar itself.  Almost like scalping, taking 1 pip only if I had to.  The 1M chart was sometimes used to assist in the entry / exit.  However, I have come to regard the 15M chart with a 48sma as the bread-and-butter.  The close reading of the 15M PA is crucial and critical; and the 48sma is not so much of an indicator of trend but the PA tear.  Although reversion to mean is not a norm, the PA tear would give some hints to the risk involved in following the current trend.  A good example was last night’s EU.  I’ll see if I could retrieve the charts and post them here this evening.

I’ve stopped at fti’s thread at pg 141 due to the holidays.  Will continue…still learning.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #27 on: January 07, 2009, 03:09:12 PM »

jjs:

1. My method is also similar to Lusan, trading on a shorter time frame, and look at M1 chart for entry.  The usual session won't last that long as previously shown.

2. In the previously shown session, after successfully performed rescue 3, I brought my scout price higher, I actually had the option of letting the scout stay put to see.  But I run out of time and got to use a predetermined point of taking profit order to closed all.

3. Here is another session that I did on 2009-01-07; and the reverse order is normally my preferred way of closing the the rescue.  This time I got time to let the remaining position ride for a little longer, and rescue 1 become sort of attack (but was later closed as price action don't allows to stay long) after rescue 2 exit made the whole position BE.

S 1 x 1.3456 - scout
S 2 x 1.3470 - rescue 1
S 5 x 1.3488 - rescue 2
L 5 x 1.3479 - exit rescue 2 when price hit BE for all & reduce overall size, while I reserve my chance to ride any more down move.
L 2 x 1.3475 - exit rescue 1 as price lost momentum
L 1 x 1.3477 - exit scout as price action don't look right.

Session profit: 14 pips
Open drawdown: 100+- pips max.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2009, 09:51:54 PM »

Master fti has just commented on his recent performance: > 100% in less than 1 month!

If I remember correcly, he did mentioned many months back when he demo traded, he also double his account within 3 weeks.
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #29 on: January 15, 2009, 12:31:11 AM »

Master fti has just commented on his recent performance: > 100% in less than 1 month!

If I remember correcly, he did mentioned many months back when he demo traded, he also double his account within 3 weeks.


It's entirely believable.

I started using Leigh's spreadsheet to demo trade according to the progression suggested by the spreadsheet on 17 Dec 08.  Done 26 trades as of last night and the account is up 19.3%.   You'd probably discount the performance because it's demo trading...all I can say is that I am taking it very seriously even thought it's a demo.  The trade sizes were in micro lots and most of the time only a few ten dollars were involved.  But I still feel my stomach juices flowing and biting my nails.  And I still have problem cutting losses when the occasion called for it.  It's as real as live for me.  My results started with about 1+% each night.  Last few sessions, I have moderated the pace and have bagged about 2+% each night.  But that also meant that the trading sessions lasted at least about 4 to 5 hours.  I have not traded like this before so I dont know if the results are good or not.  One thing I am sure is that given the Master's experience and training, doing 5 times or more better than I did should be easy.

I've promised to post a chart on the PA previously.  This is the E/U 15M captured a few minutes ago.  Notice that how the PA retrace against the trend for several bars after straying  off from the 48MA.  If my trading session is limited to only a couple of hours, I wouldnt want to be caught in this situation.  For me, when the 15M PA moves strongly away from its 48MA, the trade becomes more risky given the amount of time that I have to trade.
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