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Author Topic: Naked Chart Trading  (Read 25653 times)

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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #50 on: February 10, 2009, 08:51:13 AM »

This is the clearest step-by-step from fti so far:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2050855&postcount=2999

Taking out the last attack size really helps and the loss is usually recoverable.  Second part of MO, the reversal, is not recommended for newbies...not for me anyway...

Quote

I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh.

OK, Although I think it is unwise to make a carbon copy of me, I 'll give you a little sketch for your education.

Yes, it is possible to be caught in a sudden impulse against our open positions sometimes.

If that was at scout levels then the response is easy. You figure it out yourself. Its already given in the thread.

If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.

If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .

If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level. If you do your next stage, exposes full book. AND if you are wrong, you shall become rogue trader.

This is no recommended for newbies and those who have not created for themselves, a foreign capital buffer. For them "bite the bullet , and take the pain."

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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #51 on: February 10, 2009, 09:16:37 AM »

Thanks jjs for highlighting this piece.

It is weired that I have read this piece by fti a few times (at least 4 times I think) at different time of my learning, I discovered minor details almost every new read.

This is the "flipping", and fti does not recommend newbie to try (even old dog that does not have enough profit in account statement also don't try):

Quote

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.



And the warning of its danger:

Quote

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level.


I think he ever mentioned that even for experience trader, if need to flip 2 times, then mindset is confused.  Better stop trading.

Another thing that is not obvious when I first read this is the relation of the skew.  The fibo sequences 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 as reference has good reason, one of them is here: when flipping, withdraw the that last attack sequence (say 1+1+2+3, remove 3), flip -5, a net short position.

So when deviate from the recommended skew, better be mindful of this fact.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2009, 12:38:15 PM »

This trading method involve rescue, which carries risk of margin call in not done properly.  You has been warned and please deploy rescue with care.


Here is the margin requirement consideration:

Initial Account balance : $10,000, leverage 1:200, no position, free margin $10,000. Trade only EURUSD.


Scenario One:

For some reason, position is opened and after a few layers of rescue, total long position is 1 std lot at average price of 1.2800 while current price is 1.2770, let us look at how this is going to change the free margin:

Margin required : 1.2800x100,000x1/200 = $640
Unrealised Loss: (1.2800-1.2770)x100,000x1=$300
Free Margin : 10,000-640-300 = $9060

To exhaust this free margin without adding any more rescue, price need to move (9060/10=) 906 pips further against the trader (from 1.2770 to 1.1864) before the trader face margin call.  Not very likely to happen considering the trading time frame.


Scenario Two:

Continue from Scenario One, further rescues are deployed (2x & 4x) and total long position is 7 std lots at average price of 1.2700 while current price is 1.2670, let us look at how this is going to change the free margin:

Margin required : 1.2700x100,000x7/200 = $4445
Unrealised Loss: (1.2700-1.2670)x100,000x7=$2100
Free Margin : 10,000-4445-2100 = $3445

To exhaust this free margin without adding any more rescue, price need to move (3445/(10x7)=) 49 pips further against the trader (from 1.2670 to 1.2620) before the trader face margin call.

Now this is NOT something unlikely to happen.

Here is the quote from Art of War that relates to this:
http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php/topic,547.msg3285.html#msg3285


[HC Note: This post was edited on 2009-04-29 to include the link to the quote from Art of War]
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #53 on: March 04, 2009, 06:53:42 PM »

This is extension of thought based on the margin requirement mentioned by the previous posting:

As we can see from Scenario One, when the margin utilization is low, the free margin can act as a buffer for any adverse price movement to the current positions, thus giving it more time and space to choose a better location for further deployment of rescue; in a way this allows a better probability of successful rescue.

Whereas in the case of Scenario Two, the buffer is low and the risk of margin call is high, not to mention the pressure on the trader who is watching the open drawdown snowballed.

The points here are:

1. We need to have sufficient account balance, in relation to the scout and rescue size.

2. Deployment of rescue must handle with great care.
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #54 on: March 04, 2009, 08:30:12 PM »

Hi HC

I've been pondering on the spiral in spiral bit...also the spiral in and spiral out.  Probably have to re-read those sections a few more times before I get a better picture.

From what I understand about spiral in spiral (the concept, not the exact numbers):

Level 1 = 1,1,2
Level 2 = 4,4,8
Level 3 = 16,16,32
etc

Some of the hand-holding sessions, fti mentioned deploying Level 2 attack sequence.  Assuming that the fibo progression is same as that illustrated above, he would be deploying 4 units, 4 units, 8 units in that attack.  Would that be correct

As for the spiral in and spiral out...that refers to the ratio that is either more or less than 1.  Would that be correct as well?

PS Margin calls - understand that fxdd liquidate positions at 100% of leverage, ie no position would be allowed to go beyond -100 pips.  Hope I interpreted this correctly.
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